Monday, August 25, 2008

Proprietary Trading Firms

Proprietary Trading Firms


Listing of Proprietary Trading Firms.




Professional Firms

This is the list I can gather of professional firms. I might be missing a few. Feel free to comment if you wish to suggest one. Also please comment if you find a dead link.

This list is in no way a recommendation of any of the firms listed below. It is just for
educational purposes only of proprietary and professional firms.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

R Multiples


Analyzing And Improving Your Trading Performance: Part 1.

By Chris Anderson, Ph.D

This is the first article of a two part series that explores how we can improve our trading results by carefully observing the previous trading performance of a trader, a trading system, or a trading newsletter. This first article addresses how to use those results and then predict the range of possible future outcomes. Next week, I address how to use these analytical results to set position sizing so that a balance can be maintained between the risk that we are comfortable with and the rewards that we hope to achieve.

Suppose we take a string of trades that have been profitable. These trades may originate from actual transactions, or were simulated using backtesting software, or were generated by paper trading without risking actual money. In addition, these trades may have originated from a discretionary approach, or an approach that follows precise entry and exit rules, or a middle ground between the two. Furthermore, these trades may have originated from recommendations from a newsletter, stock advisory service, your neighbor, or your own results. When observing a string of historical trades, regardless of their origin or their style, each trader will end up with two basic questions:

Do I trade this approach since it made money in the past? And,

How do I incorporate this approach into my trading business?

To further entice you, suppose that the previous data shows that you would have made $12,000, on a $50,000 account, in only 12 months. Is that a good return? Of course you would take that return if somebody guaranteed those results but the markets do not operate in that manner. Thus saying I will make another $12,000 in the coming 12 months, if I just do the same thing, is a bit of a stretch. As an alternative, many trading professionals ask the question if the system performs the same statistically in the future, can I accept the wide array of outcomes that are possible? Suppose we analyze the trading system above and determine the following:

You have a 20% chance of getting 8 losses in a row;

Your equity curve could realistically be lower than your starting equity 18 months after you start;

The drawdowns in a year may get to 20 times the amount you risk (20R) per trade;

Your gains in a year are expected to be around 40 times the amount you risk (40R);

Would you trade this profitable system? If we did a survey, some would say yes while others would say no. We can conclude two things from that answer: 1) Traders goals and risk tolerances dramatically affect what should and should not be traded and 2) If we know a little more about the range of possible future outcomes, we can make educated decisions about our trading.

How do we know what to expect as possible outcomes for the future? If you have reason to believe that future results might be similar to past results, we could use the historical data and ask what happens if I get the same outcomes statistically. To accomplish this, you would take your trade results, convert them to a representative marble bag of trades (R multiple distribution), and then pick marbles at random to simulate future trading results. Suppose you wanted to know the range of outcomes on the next 50 trades. You would start picking marbles at random and record the win or loss amount, relative to the amount you risked, until you picked 50 marbles. Then you could pick another 50 marbles to simulate another potential different outcome. If you played this marble game about 10,000 times, then you would see a wide range of outcomes and this could give you a good feel for the range of expected outcomes. Anybody that has been in one of Dr. Van Tharp’s marble game demonstrations on position sizing knows that you may not like all the outcomes. However, in trading, ignorance is not bliss and we MUST know in advance what might happen even if the trading performs SIMILARLY to previous results. This whole area falls under the topic of Monte Carlo simulation and is used by financial professions to understand what could happen. Many professionals develop or buy software to help them with this understanding but for many individual traders, this is beyond their scope. Since Van believes that it is critical to match your trading system with your goals and objectives, IITM will introduce a new Comprehensive Trading Analysis & Risk Report service next week that provides this analysis and then coaches you through the many resulting implications and position sizing issues.

So how would you perform this analysis starting with a list of profitable trading results?

Ideally, if you knew the amount risked on each trade, then your R multiples are produced by dividing your trade profit/loss by the initial risk amount. If you did this in a spreadsheet, you would have a column of R multiple results. If you don’t know the original risk amount, you could take all your losing trades and find the average loss as an approximation. Let’s consider a string of 10 trades (much too small normally but for example purposes) that had:

5 -1R losers

1 –3R loser

3 2R winners

1 6R winner

The total for these 10 trades (5+1+3+1) is positive 4R and thus our expectancy so far is 0.4. In addition, suppose this system trades once per month. Would you trade this system if you believed that future performance would be similar? We found that typical drawdowns for this system might be –12R, you could expect about 7 losses in a row at some point over the next 5 years, you may be in drawdowns lasting 5 years or longer, and the average yearly gain, relative to a large drawdown was about 0.4. Again would you trade this profitable system?

So what does this mean to you as a trader? First, you need to understand what you want from your trading results and you need to understand the negatives that you are willing to endure to achieve them. Next, you must have a method to take your, or someone else’s (like a newsletter’s) results (paper or actual) and determine if it is likely to fit your future requirements.

Next week, I will continue this discussion by using these types of quantitative results to determine 1) how we should set position sizing once we chose to trade, 2) how we might start trading a system conservatively and then scale up with market winnings, and 3) what happens if the system quits working and how will we know?

About the Author:
Chris Anderson, Ph.D
President/Founder 99% Trading Corporation

Chris Anderson has been trading since 1986 where he first got involved with purchasing options on impending acquisitions and leveraged buyouts. Since that time, his trading has transitioned to using a portfolio of automated systems that handle all aspects of his day or swing trading positions. Dr. Anderson has also founded 99% Trading Corporation upon the principle that computer testing and analysis can significantly improve the performance of many investors and traders. He has applied a unique background in engineering, statistics, computer software, and trading to develop the Know Your SystemTM software system to give traders a unique approach to improving their performance

Taken from the IITM website.

R multiples and Expectancy

(taken from the IITM.com website)

Expectancy

At the heart of all trading is the simplest of all concepts�that the bottom-line results must show a positive mathematical expectation in order for the trading method to be profitable. ~Chuck Branscomb

What is expectancy in a nutshell?

A trading system can be characterized as a distribution of the R-multiples it generates. Expectancy is simply the mean or average R-multiple generated.

What does that mean?

By now you should know that in the game of trading it is much more efficient to think of the profits and losses of your trades as a ratio of the initial risk taken (R).

But let�s just go over it again briefly:

One of the real secrets of trading success is to think in terms of risk-to-reward ratios every time you take a trade. Ask yourself, before you take a trade, �What�s the risk on this trade? Is the potential reward worth the potential risk?�

So how do you determine the potential risk on a trade? Well, at the time you enter any trade, you should pre-determine some point at which you�d get out of the trade to preserve your capital. That exit point is the risk you have in the trade or your expected loss. For example, if you buy a $40 stock and you decide to get out if that stock falls to $30, then your risk is $10.

The risk you have in a trade is called R. That should be easy to remember because R is short for risk. R can represent either your risk per unit, which in the example is $10 per share, or it can represent your total risk. If you bought 100 shares of stock with a risk of $10 per share, then you would have a total risk of $1,000.

Remember to think in terms of risk-to-reward ratios. If you know that your total initial risk on a position is $1,000, then you can express all of your profits and losses as a ratio of your initial risk. For example, if you make a profit of $2,000 (2 x $1000 or $20/share), then you have a 2R profit. If you have a profit of $10,000 (10 x $1000) then you have a profit of 10R.

The same thing works on the loss side. If you have a loss of $500, then you have a 0.5R loss. If you have a loss of $2000, then you have a 2R loss.

But wait, you say, how could you have a 2R loss if your total risk was $1000? Well, perhaps you didn�t keep your word about taking a $1000 loss and you didn�t exit when you should have exited. Perhaps the market gapped down against you. Losses bigger than 1R happen all the time. Your goal as a trader (or as an investor) is to keep your losses at 1R or less. Warren Buffet, known to many as the world�s most successful investor, says the number one rule of investing is to not lose money. However, contrary to popular belief, Warren Buffet does have losses. Thus, a much better version of Buffet�s number one rule would be to keep your losses to 1R or less.

When you have a series of profits and losses expressed as risk-reward ratios, what you really have is what Van calls an R-multiple distribution. As a result, any trading system can be characterized as being an R-multiple distribution. In fact, you�ll find that thinking about trading system as R-multiple distributions really helps you understand your system and learn what you can expect from them in the future.

So what does all of this have to do with expectancy?

When you have an R-multiple distribution from your trading system, you need to get the mean of that distribution. (The mean is the average value of a set of numbers). And the mean R-multiple equals the system�s expectancy.

Expectancy gives you the average R-value that you can expect from the system over many trades. Put another way, expectancy tells you how much you can expect to make on the average, per dollar risked, over a number of trades.

So when you have a distribution of trades to analyze, you can look at the profit and loss of each one of the trades that was executed in terms of R (how much was profit and loss based on your initial risk) and determine whether the system is a profitable system.

Let�s look at an example:


Entry Price

Stop

1R

Actual Exit Price

Profit/Loss







Trade One

$50.00

$45.00

$5.00

$60.00

2R gain

Trade Two

$22.00

$20.00

$2.00

$16.00

3R loss

Trade Three

$100.00

$80.00

$20.00

$300.00

10R gain

Trade Four

$79.00

$70.00

$9.00

$70.00

1R loss











Total R

8R




Expectancy (Mean = 8R / 4)

2R







So this �system� has an expectancy of 2R, which means you can �expect� to make two times what you risk over the long term using this system, based on the data that you have available.

Please note that you can only get a good idea of your system�s expectancy when you have a minimum of thirty trades to analyze, and the preference would be to have 100 to 200 trades to really get a clear picture of the system�s expectancy.

So in the real world of investing or trading, expectancy tells you the net profit or loss that you can expect over a large number of single unit trades. If the total amount of money in the losing trades is greater than the total amount of money in the winning trades, then you are a net loser and have a negative expectancy. If the total amount of money in the winning trades is greater than the total amount of money in the losing trades, then you are a net winner and have a positive expectancy.

Example, you could have 99 losing trades, each costing you a dollar. Thus, you would be down $99. However, if you had one winning trade of $500, then you would have a net payoff of $401 ($500 less $99)�despite the fact that only one of your trades was a winner and 99% of your trades were losers.

We�ll end our definition of expectancy here because it is a subject that can become much more complex.

Van Tharp has written extensively on this topic and it is one of the core concepts that he teaches. As you become more and more familiar with R-Multiples, position sizing and system development, expectancy will become much easier to understand.

To safely master the art of trading or investing, it is best to learn and understand all of this material. Although it may seem complex at times, we encourage you to persevere because like any worthwhile endeavor, as soon as you truly grasp it and then work towards mastering it, you will catapult your chances of real success in the markets.


To learn more about expectancy, the Van Tharp Institute recommends these related educational resources:

Position Sizing DVD Series Learn More...
Special Report on Money Management Learn More...
Special Report on Expectancy Learn More...
How to Develop A Winning Trading System That Fits You Home Study Program Learn More...
How to Develop A Winning Trading System That Fits You Three-Day Workshop Learn More...
Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom Learn More...


The Advantages and Disadvantages of Daytrading

Advantages

Many opportunities each day.
Trading can be very exciting and stimulating
If you have an expectancy of .50 or more you may never have a losing month or even week.
No overnight risk.
High probability entry systems
There is always another opportunity

Disadvantages
High transaction costs compared to longer term systems
excitement has nothing to do with making money
profits are limited by time
Data costs are high
scanning costs are high.
Lots of systems with high probability entries also have losses bigger than the gains
Short term systems can be subject to random noise in the markets
Short term psychological pressure can be intensive.

Underingstanding Your Issues That Deal With Trading Part 2


Understanding Your Core Issue

Part Two: An Amazing Twist to Van's Story

by
Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

Last week I discussed my personal core issue of loneliness. As I said, everyone has a core issue inside of them; one issue that rules the subconscious more so than any other. I believe that most people have something similar to what I described with respect to core issues. In fact, A Course in Miracles says it is part of the human condition, part of the way we’ve created ourselves. However, we will learn this week that these core issues are merely beliefs that limit us, and I will show you first hand how getting rid of my core issue opened me up to a miracle.

We basically all feel a deep sense of loneliness, emptiness, lack of wholeness, or something similar because we feel separated from God. Some people want to connect with a soul mate to feel complete, while others want the whole world to love them and approve of them to feel complete.

It’s this feeling of lack that is the basis for self-sabotage because it makes you think that you are much less than you are – that you are not worthwhile and that you cannot have abundance or success or joy or happiness. But that is only because you identify with the thoughts and feelings that pass through you that we call the ego.

Let me quote from A Course in Miracles:

What if you looked within and saw no sin? This “fearful” question is one the ego never asks. And you who ask it now are threatening the ego’s whole defensive system too seriously for it to bother to pretend it is your friend. Text, page 424.

But your thoughts, beliefs, feelings and subpersonalities are only you acting from what Eckhart Tolle calls object consciousness because you think you are them. And if that’s who you believe you are, then you’ll create a very limited world to live in and have your life experiences. But there is another way:

For on the voice you choose to hear, and on the sights you choose to see, depends entirely your whole belief in what you are. Text, page 425.

It’s interesting because I had been exposed to all of this material by the time I became a full time trading coach in 1986. However, I was still working on accepting concepts such as “I create everything that happens to me.” That was very hard for me to accept initially. When I’d read passages like the one above that I just quoted from A Course in Miracles, it made no sense at all. But that’s because I had not experienced it. I had not lived it.

I am NOT my thoughts and feelings. Instead, I am the awareness of my thoughts and feelings. It totally makes sense to me now because I have had an experience of the wholeness that comes from that realization. That realization is a part of me now, but I also realize I have a long way to go.

Several years ago, I could never have written these types of articles that I’ve written on my experience. First, I hadn’t had the experiences. But most importantly, I’d have been too concerned about your reactions to everything I’ve said.

However, I certainly know that I’m not your thoughts and reactions, just as I also know that I’m not my reactions to your thoughts and reactions and also that you are not those thoughts and reactions. My point is to help you realize that. When you do so you will have no limits to as what you can be, do, or have -- as a trader, as an investor, or as a human being.

Amazing Outcome

Remember the amazing twist I mentioned in last week’s article? After experiencing such a feeling of peace while working on my issues in Florida and remembering my experience with Mitzi, I had a strong urge to look at that letter from Mitzi’s husband again. I had not read it in many years. I had kept it in a family tree album. I pulled it out and reread it after all these years. This time, it seemed like a different letter when I read it and all the emotion was gone. I learned that Mitzi was just a nickname. Her full name was spelled out in the letter as well as her name after she married the American. It also mentioned her daughter, Diana, who was born in 1958.

I’d remembered her daughter and years ago had the urge to look her up. I didn’t because I assumed that it might be sad for both of us because we both probably would just have very distant memories of Mitzi – whom we both considered a mother.

However, this time the Mitzi voice, which had become my internal guidance, said, “Look her up.” So I did. You can find almost anyone on the internet these days and I paid $2.95 for a people search. I got her name, address and phone number. But that report also had something else that blew me away. It had a list of Diana’s relatives and one of the relatives listed was Mitzi’s full married name, who it said was 80 years old. I immediately did another search and came up with her phone number and address. Mitzi is still alive!! The information about how she had died from a brain tumor wasn’t what happened. She did have a brain tumor but she did not die from it. She is alive and well, living on the west coast.

I contacted her immediately and Mitzi was as excited to hear from me as I was to hear her voice. So as far as I’m concerned, I have a Mom who is still alive, which is a tremendous blessing. I arranged to visit with her upon my return from Fiji a few weeks ago, and it was wonderful reunion.

I have much more to say about this and hope to share more with you later.

I can’t imagine a much bigger miracle than finding out that a person I believed had passed away is still alive, and that I would have the opportunity to meet with her again after more than 50+ years apart. — Van Tharp


To learn more about Dr. Tharp and his amazing teaching abilities go here

Trading Education

Underingstanding Your Issues That Deal With Trading


Understanding Your Core Issue

Part One: Van Shares His Story

by
Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

After many years of doing coaching work with people, studying human psychology and behavior, as well as doing much work on my own self exploration, I long ago concluded that everyone has a core issue inside of them—one issue that rules the subconscious more so than any other. Because people are so afraid of that one core issue popping up, they tend to hide it deep within themselves. Most hope it never surfaces and will do anything to keep from experiencing it. So it goes unresolved and continues to run thoughts, emotions and actions from deep within ourselves.

It’s important for each of us to remember we are not our emotions. Instead, our emotions are energy flowing through us. And what you resist tends to persist, even if it is buried deep inside.

I’ve been busy this summer doing a new kind of self exploration that has led me on an extraordinary journey in dealing with my very core issue. This has been a powerful experience for me, and I’d like to share some of it with you.

So let’s jump right into a little of Van’s early childhood history.

Childhood History

Six months after I was born, my father left for the Philippines. He was involved in reconstruction after the war, but I was too young to understand that. All I knew was that suddenly, I didn’t have a father. My mother told me that I was so upset that I wouldn’t eat and it took a lot of work on their part to get food into me.

As I gradually got over my father leaving, my grandfather became my father-figure. When I was two years old, my father returned. Then my family moved to Japan—without my grandfather. Thus, I was now losing my grandfather. And for most of my childhood, I always thought of my Grandfather’s house as my home.

In Japan, I became particularly close to a Japanese housekeeper that we called Mitzi. She was like a mother to me and to this date one of my treasures is a picture of Mitzi and I together.

But at five years old, I left Japan and I never saw Mitzi again. It felt like my heart broke. Gratefully, I went on to have my core family with me for the rest of my childhood. Nevertheless, I think the psychological damage from the losses was done at that point.

I don’t have any charge on any of these individual happenings because I’ve done many, many years of clearing work on my issues neutralizing them. However, my one core issue was still there, even after all the work I’d done.

Let me share another thing that happened. My mother died of cancer in 1993 at the age of 85. She’d lived a good life and I was at peace with her. I was actually happy that she had made her transition and could now join the rest of our family (my father died in 1977 and my sister died in 1988). What I didn’t expect was a reaction that I had going through my mother’s things.

What I found among my mother’s things was a letter from Mitzi’s husband, written in 1958, trying so desperately to reach us. When I read that letter, I became about as emotional as I can ever remember being. It was my mother’s funeral, but I was crying over Mitzi.

Mitzi had eventually married a U.S. soldier and moved to the U.S. My family was living in England, so we never saw her. But my understanding is that my sister said something to upset her that caused a rift between our families. Furthermore, I’d been told that Mitzi had died a few years later of a brain tumor before my family returned from England.

So what does all this have to do with my core issue? Well, my core issue has been a very deep sense of loneliness and emptiness inside. I’ve only felt it a few times, but when it came up it was so bad that I never wanted to feel it again. In fact, I tend to believe that my whole life has been about doing whatever was necessary not to feel that feeling. I wouldn’t get too close to people because they might leave me, and I’d distract myself with work or escape activities. I’ve always felt like that emptiness was around someplace that I had to hide from it.

And Then Something Happened!

In June, I was in Florida doing a preparation course for my Oneness course in Fiji. We were doing an exercise on strengthening your inner guidance. We were asked to imagine the qualities we wanted our inner guidance to have so that our relationship would become very, very strong and wonderful and we were given blessings to help us produce that. I decided that I wanted an internal guidance that was very, very joyful.

We were doing an exercise in which we concentrated on the qualities we wanted, asking the universe to give them to us. And while we were doing that we were getting “hands on” oneness blessings. I had three of them. The first two felt very masculine, strong, and comforting. But that wasn’t what I was looking for. However, the third blessing given transferred a very gentle feminine energy into me. And when I felt it, an immense joy came over me. And suddenly, the word “Mitzi” came into my heart.

That evening, I felt this utter sense of completeness inside of me. And I knew that it was now part of me and that I could never feel that dreaded sense of emptiness again. I realized that feeling of emptiness was just an illusion. It was just a feeling that I identified with and resisted. Now, I have a new feeling of being whole and complete inside of myself, like I will never have to look outside myself again for that sense of fulfillment. That feeling is within me and it is always available.

At that point I felt very, very happy. And my internal guidance (which feels like it is Mitzi) says that this is only the beginning of something much more magnificent to come.

Next week I’ll share an amazing twist in this story. My memories of Mitzi triggered an amazing series of events, and I look forward to sharing more with you.

About Van Tharp: Trading coach, and author, Dr. Van K. Tharp is widely recognized for his best-selling book Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom and his outstanding Peak Performance Home Study program - a highly regarded classic that is suitable for all levels of traders and investors. You can learn more about Van Tharp at www.iitm.com.